From: John Livesay <johnlivesay70@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, Jul 28, 2016 at 8:02 AM
Subject: Confidence is THE single most important attribute in being able to attract money
To: Stee <stevescott@techacq.com>
|
Friday, July 29, 2016
Fwd: Confidence is THE single most important attribute in being able to attract money
From: John Livesay <johnlivesay70@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, Jul 28, 2016 at 8:02 AM
Subject: Confidence is THE single most important attribute in being able to attract money
To: Stee <stevescott@techacq.com>
Fwd: Forget about contacting new investors
From: Theodore OBrien <team@wilsonconferences.com>
Date: Thu, Jul 28, 2016 at 8:34 AM
Subject: Forget about contacting new investors
To: stevescott@techacq.com
Many of the private equity fund managers and independent sponsors that I speak to want to be connected with investors; they want lists of family offices, seed capital providers, or HNW wealth management firms. While accessing more investor contact details may be a useful resource and improve your marketing efforts, it is often not the real constraint that is holding your business back.
No business is perfect; every business has some constraint that, if removed, would help the business more than anything else. Sometimes this constraint is portfolio management expertise, sometimes it is marketing materials, and many times it is lack of institutionalized processes and tools. Seldom do I meet with a private equity fund which, if provided with a long list of 1,000 investors, would explode in assets under management. That's one of the messages I'll be sharing at next month's CapitalCon workshop (http://WilsonConferences.com/CapitalCon) and one I'm sure my fellow 10+ capital raising coaches on stage will identify with: it takes more than just meeting an investor to raise capital.
Most private equity managers do not take the time to write down all of their current business problems or symptoms and ask four "why" questions to identify the root constraint in their business model. A good tool that I have seen used by half a dozen management consulting gurus is the "Four Why Process." If you ask why something is happening four times, you will often get to the root cause of the problem.
Here's an example of how the process is used:
+ Initial problem/symptom: We don't manage $100 million in assets yet. Why?
+ Potential answer and follow-up question: We are not raising capital from wealth management firms as we had hoped. Why?
+ Potential answer and follow-up question: Our marketing materials have not been brought up to speed with the competition's--ours are light and our investment process is poorly described. Why?
+ Potential answer and follow-up question: We know that we should be paying a consultant or in-house marketer to help with both marketing materials and generating relationships, but we have not hired one. Why?
+ Potential answer: We do not have the profits available to hire a full-time marketer, but we can get around to creating a system to share equity, grow relationships with third-party marketers, or build a marketing-related advisory board.
The point of this exercise is to identify what the bottleneck is that is slowing down your growth. If a private equity fund can be seen as a 20-link chain, you must have all 20 strong links in place to keep the business growing long-term. If 19 links can carry the weight of a $300 million fund but one link is only up to par for a $10 million fund, then you will limit your growth and may never reach or only very slowly grow into a $300 million fund. The biggest return for your investment of time and money will be to focus on fixing that one broken or subpar link in your operations, marketing, trading, or internal business processes. Anything else would be a relative waste of money or energy.
This is a unique marketing technique because it is a reminder that the smartest thing you could do for your marketing and sales campaign may have nothing to do with picking up a phone or buying a database of investors. Before spending more money or valuable time, consider the following two tips for improving your ability to attract investors:
1. Use the "Four Why Tool" to drill down deeper into the top five problems that you see your fund facing right now. Oftentimes three to five problems will be symptoms of a single root cause which can be directly addressed.
2. Ask others, including your advisory board, current investors, potential investors and co-workers, what is holding your fund back. Do not settle with two-word surface answers. Try to identify what three to five action steps your fund could take this quarter to improve how you are positioned and address the number one limiting factor in your business.
I hope that this article saves you time and energy as you look to raise more assets under management for your private equity firm. If you'd like consultant-level coaching from myself and 10+ experienced capital raising executives, join me at the Edison Ballroom on August 18th: http://WilsonConferences.com/CapitalCon or call us at (305) 503-9077.
See you next month,
Theodore O'Brien, CPEP
Managing Director
Private Equity Investment Group
(305) 503-9077
328 Crandon Blvd. Suite #223
Key Biscayne, Florida 33149
United States
http://PrivateEquity.com
P.S. Once you've drilled into the Four Why Process and feel you're ready to start connecting with new investor relationships, we have investor databases available at http://FamilyOfficeDatabases.com. You can call Jackie on my team to discuss any of our investor data solutions at (305) 677-3327.
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Sunday, July 24, 2016
Fwd: unlimited Olympics… would you watch it?
For the purpose of this blog, I'd like to suspend moral and ethical considerations for a moment – let's call this a fun thought experiment.
As we enter Olympics season, I find myself thinking about what you might call the "unlimited-class" Olympics or the "Anything Goes" Olympics -- where genetic manipulation, drugs, robotic prostheses, and AI are not only allowed but encouraged.
This blog is a quick look at what this might look like.
And, finally, after you read this blog, I'd love your feedback. Take a quick 1-question survey (click here).
In regards to the "anything goes" Olympics:
- I'd watch this with eyes glued
- Interesting but I prefer the untainted "normal" human competition
- No, wouldn't watch it.
- I think it's an abomination and would protest it
I'll report back the survey results…
The "Rules" and a Thought Experiment
Over the years, the International Olympics Committee (IOC) has stripped 67 athletes of their medals for "cheating."
The majority of these cases typically involved doping, or the use of banned athletic performance-enhancing drugs, including stimulants, steroids and human growth hormones.
While breaking the rules and cheating is certainly bad, one fact remains true – with the help of these drugs, the athletes did actually perform better than their non-enhanced counterparts, and the question remains, just how much better is possible?
Wouldn't it be interesting to watch a competition where athletes and scientists actually team up to compete in traditional and new Olympic categories as technology-enabled humans?
If so, here's what you might see.
The Tech Behind an "Anything Goes" Olympics
What follows is a glimpse of what might go down when the regulatory handcuffs are taken off.
Synthetic Biology & Genomics:
1. CRISPR/Cas9: We've seen a number of recent extraordinary advances in gene editing technology. This year, Chinese scientists announced the first human trials for a revolutionary technology called CRISPR/Cas9. As this develops, imagine we get to a place where we can design athletes for specific sports – a sprinter might want increased musculature and fast-twitch muscle fibers, more lung capacity, more height, and so on. A swimmer might want to select for an elongated torso, or more muscle endurance. But why stop there? Perhaps we could even edit in webbed fingers and gills.
To a degree, we're already seeing "genetic selection" happening. A few years ago, a Vanderbilt football coach actually offered a scholarship to the unborn child of two former athletes… And I don't doubt that in some countries, selective breeding to achieve 'top athletic' families has been the norm for decades.
2. Microparticles and Drug Delivery Mechanisms: We've also observed several developments in recent years in microparticle research and new drug delivery mechanisms. An interesting one that could one day be applied to athletics: a team at the Children's Hospital in Boston found a way to inject oxygen-filled microparticles directly into the bloodstream, quickly oxygenating the animal and keeping it alive for 15 minutes despite blocked airways. Imagine a swimmer that only needed to breathe once in a 500-meter race.
4. Steroids/Doping: An enormous number of athletes have come under fire for steroids, doping, and HGH injections (something they try to obfuscate). But what if, instead, anything goes? Of course, this is risky for hundreds of reasons, but the limits of the human physiology would rapidly be discovered.
Robotics/Prosthetics/BCI:
1. Exoskeletons and Robotic Suits: Exoskeletons are robotic suits worn around a human body. Companies like Eksobionics are busy developing health, industrial and military applications. These suits can give people superhuman strength, speed and agility – why not develop them for athletes? Wouldn't you like to see Iron Man compete in a weightlifting competition, the high jump or the 100m sprint?
2. Bionic Limbs: In 2012, we saw the first bionic sprinter run 400m with prosthetic legs. What would happen if we continued to advance specialized prosthetics for specific sports – might athletes choose voluntary amputation in favor of artificial limbs that take 10 seconds off their time?
3. Brain/Computer Interface: Over the last few years, there have been incredible developments in brain-computer interface technology. The tech allows you to control and interact with tech via a direct link to your brain. This could lead to competition within entirely new sports – say, a mind-controlled drone race, or brain-controlled robot boxing.
Augmented Reality + AI:
Augmented Reality & AI: Companies like Magic Leap, Meta, and HoloLens are rapidly developing augmented reality solutions that will transform the way we live, work, play and, well, exercise. In an Olympic application, imagine a slalom skier or bike rider with AR glasses linked to an AI providing a detailed trajectory to follow, showing them when and where to speed up or slow down based on surface conditions measured with a hyperspectral camera.
Add to this the ability of an archer to point his or her arrow with such precision as an AI measures wind velocity and calculates trajectories to 5 decimal places.
Sensors:
1. Sensors: Some of the most interesting sensors under development are embedded and wearable biological sensors that can measure your physiology, or that of an opponent. Imagine the combination of sensors, augmented reality and AI that allows a boxer to know his opponent's weakest moments and most vulnerable body parts…
2. Sensory Substitution & Addition: Sensor technology is exploding. A number of labs have proposed ways to augment the human sensory experience by "adding senses" to the body. David Eagleman's VEST, for example, is a noninvasive, low-cost vibratory vest that allows deaf patients to perceive auditory information through small vibrations on their torso. Imagine adding senses to athletes. Soccer players could wear these sensors and intuitively "know" where the ball was, and where every other player was on the field at all times.
Could we begin to add entirely new sensors to the human experience?
We've (Kind of) Already Started
Now, obviously, there are lots of challenges, both technically and ethically, with many of these scenarios.
But in a sense, I feel like we are already headed in this general direction.
Aren't athletes already training with many early versions of these tools?
While they may not be able to compete with them, they are using data and technology to optimize their performance.
From the spectator's point of view, will "non-enhanced humans" competing in sports start to bore people?
Will an unlimited Olympics happen? If today's crazy reality TV shows are any indication for the viewing audience's hunger for insanity, I'd make a long bet that it will materialize… probably not by the IOC, but by some enterprising TV mogul and promoter.
It's worth saying that there is one other positive side to all above – we'd make extraordinary technical progress driven by competition in this "ultimate sport." You can imagine then that this tech would end up helping many beyond just the athletes themselves, especially disabled individuals who have lost normal function.
Join Me
This is the sort of conversation we explore at my 250-person executive mastermind group called Abundance 360.
The program is highly selective. If you'd like to be considered, apply here.
Share this with your friends, especially if they are interested in any of the areas outlined above.
P.S. Every week I send out a "Tech Blog" like this one. If you want to sign up, go to Diamandis.com and sign up for this and Abundance Insider.
P.P.S. My dear friend Dan Sullivan and I have a podcast called Exponential Wisdom. Our conversations focus on the exponential technologies creating abundance, the human-technology collaboration, and entrepreneurship. Head here to listen and subscribe: a360.com/podcast
PHD Ventures , 800 Corporate Pointe, Suite 350, Culver City, CA 90230
Saturday, July 23, 2016
Fwd: Abundance Insider: July 22 Edition
In this week's Abundance Insider: Biohybrid beings, mine-hunting drones and an Alzheimer's vaccine.
Cheers,
Peter, Marissa, Cody, Kelley and Greg
P.S. Send any tips to our team by clicking here, and send your friends and family to this link to subscribe to Abundance Insider.
Scientists Create Successful Biohybrid Being Using 3-D Printing and Genetic Engineering
What it is: Scientists from Harvard, the University of Michigan, Stanford and the University of Illinois have created an artificial ray with a soft, 3D printed rubber body, a 3D printed gold skeleton, and muscular circuitry composed of rat heart cells that were genetically modified to contract in response to light. "Our ray outperformed existing locomotive biohybrid systems in terms of speed, distance traveled, and durability (six days), demonstrating the potential of self-propelled, phototactically activated tissue-engineered robots," the study's authors wrote.
Why it's important: This development takes us one step closer to highly specialized biohybrid beings -- imagine artificial worms that could hunt and consume cancer cells, or lifelike soft robots. (Bonus: For another biohybrid robot announced this week, check out this robot sea slug.) Join the Discussion
Spotted by Mike Spalding
3D-Printing Pen Lets You Print Using Plastic Recycled From Your Own Home
What it is: The Renegade pen is a $99 3D printing pen currently raising funds on Kickstarter that uses recycled household plastic (think bags, plastic bottles and files) as well as standard plastic filaments. Daniel Edwards created Renegade to help cut down on plastic waste and decrease the barriers to 3D prototyping for mainstream users.
Why it's important: This design makes it cheaper and easier for enthusiasts and amateurs to try their hand at 3D prototyping and additive manufacturing, with the added benefit of reducing household plastic waste. Join the Discussion
Spotted by Marissa Brassfield
Mine-Hunting Drone Could Make the World a Safer Place
What it is: Entrepreneur Massoud Hassani has just revealed the latest prototype of his Mine Kafon Drone, which specializes in finding and destroying land mines with its onboard tools. The drone's camera first creates a 3D map of the area, then rescans it with a metal detector and notes GPS coordinates of any detected mines before returning back to home base. After the drone operator swaps out the metal detector for a gripper, the drone returns to each detected mine and sets explosives on it for remote detonation.
Why it's important: Hassani says that the prototype will be 20 times faster, far less expensive, and far safer for humans and animals than traditional approaches like human or canine crews. He's now working on making his system completely autonomous -- which, if successful, will help us eradicate the estimated 100 million buried landmines worldwide. Join the Discussion
Spotted by Aryadeep S. Acharya
Vaccine Developed by Australian and US Researchers May Reverse Dementia and Alzheimer's
What it is: Australian and U.S. scientists at Adelaide's Flinders University have created what may be the world's first dementia vaccine, and human trials could begin in the next two to three years. The International Business Times reports that the vaccine "targets tau proteins and abnormal beta-amyloid that cause Alzheimer's," preventing and reversing early stages of the disease. "Essentially what we have designed is a vaccine that makes the immune system produce antibodies and those antibodies act like tow trucks so they come to your driveway, they latch on to the breakdown protein or car and they pull it out of the driveway," explained Flinders University medicine professor Nikolai Petrovsky.
Why it's important: According to the World Health Organization, dementia-related illnesses and care have a total global societal cost of $600 billion per year. If effective, this vaccine could completely eliminate the 7.7 million new cases of dementia we see every year. Join the Discussion
Spotted by Marissa Brassfield
Ford's Genius Co-Bots Can Build Cars, Make Coffee, and Even Give Massages
What it is: Ford Motor Company's assembly plant in Cologne, Germany is conducting a trial of human-robot teamwork. Ford's "co-bots" primarily work alongside human workers to install shock absorbers on Ford Fiesta vehicles, but they also can be programmed to perform activities like giving massages or making coffee.
Why it's important: Installing shocks in vehicles is a laborious, precise process -- one much better suited for a robot than a human. This Ford trial is one of many early examples of human-technology teamwork in the workplace, where robots not only do unpleasant jobs, but also perform activities that improve their human companions' lives. Join the Discussion
Spotted by Marissa Brassfield
World's Smallest Hard Drive Writes Data Atom-By-Atom
What it is: Scientists from the Technical University of Delft have created the world's tiniest hard drive by manipulating single atoms. The atomic hard drive has a storage density 500 times that of current technology -- as an example, a postage-stamp-sized atomic drive could store every book on the planet.
Why it's important: The researchers described their invention as the "atomic-scale printing press." They've proven that it's possible to write, store and read data at the atomic scale -- and because this particular technique is scalable, easily automated and reliable, it's an especially exciting approach to data storage. Join the Discussion
Spotted by Stephen Polus
GMO Mosquito Reduces Dengue Rate in Brazil by 91%
What it is: Thanks to a GMO mosquito called Friendly™ Aedes, dengue fever cases have dropped 91% in the 5,000-person CECAP/Eldorado district of Brazil since April 30, 2015, when the mosquitoes were released. The male Aedes aegypti mosquito doesn't bite or transmit disease; when it mates with wild females, their offspring inherit a fluorescent marker and a self-limiting gene that causes death before adulthood. As a result, the Aedes mosquitoes -- and their offspring -- die off without leaving an ecological footprint.
Why it's important: Genetically modified insects have already been a promising weapon in our fight against malaria. This GMO mosquito and its ilk could end dengue fever and other mosquito-borne illnesses in a matter of years. Join the Discussion
Spotted by Prithvi Raj
Nanotech Sunscreen Binds to Your Skin, But Doesn't Seep In
What it is: Yale University dermatologist Michael Girardi has created a nanotech sunscreen that binds to proteins on your skin cells until you wipe it off with a towel. Commercial sunscreen absorbs into the skin, or washes off with water or sweat; Girardi's approach involves coating padimate 0, a UV-absorbing chemical, with a biodegradable nanoparticle polymer that prevents skin absorption.
Why it's important: Some cell culture studies have found that sunscreen chemicals may bind to internal hormone receptors. This nanoparticle sunscreen will reduce people's risk of chemical exposure while also protecting them from harmful UV rays. Join the Discussion
Spotted by Marissa Brassfield
What is Abundance Insider?
This email is a briefing of the week's most compelling, abundance-enabling tech developments, curated by Marissa Brassfield in preparation for Abundance 360. Read more about A360 below.
Want more conversations like this?
At Abundance 360, Peter's 250-person executive mastermind, we teach the metatrends, implications and unfair advantages for entrepreneurs enabled by breakthroughs like those featured above. The program is highly selective and we're almost full, but we're still looking for a few final CEOs and entrepreneurs who want to change the world. You can apply here.
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PHD Ventures , 800 Corporate Pointe, Suite 350, Culver City, CA 90230
Sunday, July 17, 2016
Fwd: demonetized cost of living
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Peter Diamandis <peter@diamandis.com>
Date: Sunday, July 17, 2016
Subject: demonetized cost of living
To: STeve <stevescott@techacq.com>
<https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEg5RTFjMMzT_Y13kEfdrXmxrmLsw2n0De4GSUKvUoTGo9xpgA90FR3keeOuCq-AQQ7HieAlM7KN-j-bp1yvwpDL8IXS52_Yi0IWlz7cy7t4jILg-F3Q-8RhFbi-J7090XOAPIytTHAXih0oSUYONsSZFatiJW1fFx1MOf2A4HAU_D6C9_XPUzi2b76UDjaQR3zDdmXW8e6M7pgOkFiH=s0-d-e1-ft&stn=0&cid=1180&mid=23379978&aid=22289&aaid=2&time=1468775046>
People are concerned about how AI and robotics are taking jobs and destroying livelihoods… reducing our earning capacity, and subsequently destroying the economy.
In anticipation, countries like Canada, India and Finland are running experiments to pilot the idea of "universal basic income" – the unconditional provision of a regular sum of money from the government to support livelihood independent of employment.
But what people aren't talking about, and what's getting my attention, is a forthcoming rapid demonetization of the cost of living.
Meaning -- it's getting cheaper and cheaper to meet our basic needs.
Powered by developments in exponential technologies, the cost of housing, transportation, food, health care, entertainment, clothing, education and so on will fall, eventually approaching, believe it or not, zero.
In this blog, I'll explore how people spend their money now and how "technological socialism" (i.e. having our lives taken care of by technology) can demonetize living.
As an entrepreneur, CEO or leader, understanding this trend and implication is important... it will change the way we live, work, and play in the years ahead.
How We Spend Our Money Today
Spending habits around the world tell a pretty consistent story – we tend to spend money on many of the same basic products and services.
Take a look at how consumers spent their money in three large economies: The United States, China, and India.
In the U.S., in 2011, 33% of the average American's income was spent on Housing, followed by 16% spent on Transportation, 12% spent on Food, 6% on Healthcare, and 5% on Entertainment.
In other words, more than 75% of Americans' expenditures come from Housing, Transportation, Food, Personal Insurance, and Health.
In China, per a recent Goldman Sachs Investment Research report, there is a similar breakdown -- Food, Home, Mobility, and Well-Being make up the majority of the expenditures.
Interestingly, in China, consumers care significantly more about looking good and eating better (and less about having more fun) than in the U.S. – nearly half of consumer income goes to clothes and food.
In India, with a population of 1.2 billion people, expenditures on Food, Transportation, and Miscellaneous Goods and Services are most prominent.
Rent/Housing and Healthcare represent a smaller portion of expenditures.
These differences likely represent cultural differences in each of the three very different countries – but overall, you see that the majority of expenditures are in these top 7 categories:
Transportation
Food
Healthcare
Housing
Energy
Education
Entertainment
Now, imagine what would happen if the cost of these items plummeted.
Here's how…
Rapid Demonetization – What It Means
To me, "demonetization" means the ability of technology to take a product or service that was previously expensive and making it substantially cheaper, or potentially free (in the extreme boundary condition). It means removing money from the equation.
Consider Photography: In the Kodak years, photography was expensive. You paid for the camera, for the film, for developing the film, and so on. Today, during the Megapixel era, the camera is free in your phone, no film, no developing. Completely demonetized.
Consider Information/Research: In years past, collecting obscure data was hard, expensive in time if you did it yourself, or expensive in money if you hired researchers. Today, during the Google Era, it's free and the quality is 1000x better. Access to information, data and research is fully demonetized.
Consider Live Video or Phone calls: Demonetized by Skype, Google Hangouts, the list goes on:
Craigslist demonetized classifieds
iTunes demonetized the music industry
Uber demonetized transportation
AirBnb demonetized hotels
Amazon demonetized bookstores
Demonetizing ~$1M Worth of Stuff We Take for Granted
In the back of my book Abundance (Page 289 of the recent edition), I provide a chart showing how we've demonetized $900,000 worth of products and services that you might have purchased between 1969 and 1989.
<https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEgwV7Li8Bd38N9MmdCvNPRWTNc6PLwvC0Kh9l0hOYFVBg0PBt9qK4hcf95PEqmTY5KlQXqwSDRj9fXyOTRw0q5fj7GG985yHCekGb2h0OySDFQZG4FemdGAn8-IgiOmSZjJry3Hfw8xvrfv7ftQdZASb3VMfRDQAZ6MuKMUX3L6NOHivLC2dd3NvX7kC-n84Ty-yvtaMJTOPDPgzPuzQ24sWvLqjzDVawRm8F7VyQ=s0-d-e1-ft>
People with a smartphone today can access tools that would have cost thousands a few decades ago.
Twenty years ago, most well-off U.S. citizens owned a camera, a videocamera, a CD player, a stereo, a video game console, a cellphone, a watch, an alarm clock, a set of encyclopedias, a world atlas, a Thomas guide, and a whole bunch of other assets that easily add up to more than $900,000.
Today, all of these things are free on your smartphone.
Strange that we don't value these things when they become free. We just expect them.
So now, let's look at the top seven areas mentioned above where people globally are spending their cash today, and how these things are likely to demonetize over the next decade or two.
(1) Transportation:
The automotive market (a trillion dollars) is being demonetized by startups like Uber. But this is just the beginning.
When Uber rolls out fully autonomous services, your cost of transportation will plummet.
Think about all of the related costs that disappear: auto insurance, auto repairs, parking, fuel, parking tickets… Your overall cost of "getting around" will be 5 to 10 times cheaper when compared to owning a car.
This is the future of "car as a service."
Ultimately, the poorest people on Earth will be chauffeured around.
(2) Food:
As I noted in Abundance, the cost of food has dropped thirteenfold over the past century. That reduction will continue.
<https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEijvXbD8RRiYg_6b9NDY6tcLXrihNXaKlQJl5SP9BQz8Hqcu4pVv99xok6hMTEYNxoheXc0JddxYyJp2iGG_IpeGdI5JyoDVAoBXM6ioyG701aw6ipaxWxDW6AT1K7355quMD6_hc72iJFL4Wh86cyRaG3ZDIV38NxZfrsn1zs-eerAJe0MuoJfk0ACao1LDBJuTAlZbgJ74g=s0-d-e1-ft>
As noted in the chart above, the cost of food at home has dropped by >50%.
Additional gains will be made as we learn to efficiently produce foods locally through vertical farming (note that 70% of food's final retail price comes from transportation, storage and handling).
Also, as we make genetic and biological advances, we will learn how to increase yield per square meter.
(3) Healthcare:
Healthcare can be roughly split into four major categories: (i) diagnostics, (ii) intervention/surgery, (iii) chronic care and (iv) medicines.
(i) Diagnostics: AI has already demonstrated the ability to diagnose cancer patients better than the best doctors, image and diagnose pathology, look at genomics data and draw conclusions, and/or sort through gigabytes of phenotypic data… all for the cost of electricity.
(ii) Intervention/Surgery: In the near future, the best surgeons in the world will be robots, and they'll be able to move with precision and image a surgical field in high magnification. Each robotic surgeon can call upon the data from millions of previous robotic surgeries, outperforming the most experienced human counterpart. Again, with the cost asymptotically approaching zero.
(iii) Chronic/Eldercare: Taking care of the aging of chronically ill will again be done most efficiently through Robots.
(iv) Medicines: Medicines will be discovered and manufactured more efficiently by AI's, and perhaps in the near future, be compounded at home with the aid of a 3D printing machine that assembles your perfect medicines based on the needs and blood chemistries in that very moment.
It's also worth noting the price of genomics sequencing is plummeting (as you'll see below, five times the rate of Moore's Law). Accurate sequencing should allow us to predict which diseases you're likely to develop, and which drugs are of highest use to treat you.
<https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEhcaKUOs2xbUY_VLQLCZdyAvKGqb7xHC7ilee74JB7CI2ZuvbWBhrzvHGwHBQ5P-MV6KyzmnQXghfPodWg46FVjPpsFCn6-5s4moSbER-FYOQmnRfQabFUFxV4t0hSmEEItWHQwsCSf6rv51NBlZ3okKm3o9p_Ox1cC29cImp50zsKurqCgD4DGB8bocpUxJ1UwLlTnqe9NdQ=s0-d-e1-ft>
The plummeting cost to sequence the human genome (Source: NHGRI)
(4) Housing:
Think about what drives high housing costs. Why does a single-family apartment in Manhattan cost $10 million, while the same square footage on the outskirts of St. Louis can be purchased for $100,000?
Location. Location. Location. People flock to high-density, desired areas, near the jobs and the entertainment. This market demand drives up the price.
Housing will demonetize for two reasons: The first reason housing will demonetize is because of two key technologies which make the proximity of your home to your job irrelevant, meaning you can live anywhere, specifically where the real estate is cheap:
(1) Autonomous Cars: If your commute time can become time to read, relax, sleep, watch a movie, have a meeting… Does it matter if your commute is 90 minutes?
(2) Virtual Reality: What happens when your workplace is actually a virtual office where your coworkers are avatars? When you no longer need to commute at all. You wake up, plug into your virtual workspace, and telecommute from the farm or from the island of Lesvos.
The second technology drivers are the impact of Robotics and 3D Printing, which will demonetize the cost of building structures.
A number of startups are now exploring how 3D printed structures and buildings can dramatically reduce the cost of construction and the amount of time it takes to build a building.
For example, a company out of China, Winsun, is 3D printing entire apartment buildings (see picture below):
<https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEhSTSvcFUbZ7ZsOitO0ONY6ni1_Gt6vgoTrKCxgGq3X6YvyHjeE4FwJgFzNa1-F-yg9CA-gwE-KsRga93IWEtrg1N7Nvf9yeaBAdgQbw-KczhREI8cKz1Mcy8qeMfa9oVi4Z-9y2LuqiMPlRPtqcmPkGKvbgzbgIi5kL5Frh2yzM3PfZenddkN16PHGkXQ0Lvc_9KrHRfHejw=s0-d-e1-ft>
6-story building 3D printed by Winsun
(5) Energy:
Five thousand times more energy hits the surface of the Earth from the Sun in an hour than all of humanity uses in a year. Solar is abundant worldwide. Better yet, the poorest countries on Earth are the sunniest.
Today, the cost of Solar has dropped to ~$0.03 kWh. The cost of Solar will continue to demonetize through further material science advances (e.g. perovskite) that increase efficiencies.
(6) Education:
Education has already been demonetized in many respects, as most of the information you'd learn in school is available online, for free.
Coursera, Khan Academy, and schools like Harvard, MIT and Stanford have thousands of hours of high-quality instruction online, available to anyone on the planet with an Internet connection.
But this is just the beginning. Soon the best professors in the world will be an Artificial Intelligence, an AI able to know the exact abilities, needs, desires and knowledge of a student and teach them exactly what they need in the best fashion at the perfect rate.
Accordingly, the child of a billionaire or the child of a pauper will have access to the same (best) education delivered by such an AI, effectively for free.
(7) Entertainment
Entertainment (video and gaming) historically required significant purchases of equipment and services.
Today, with the advent of music streaming services, YouTube, Netflix and the iPhone App Store, we're seeing an explosion of available selections at the same time that the universe of options rapidly demonetizes.
YouTube has over a billion users — almost one-third of all people on the Internet — and every day, people watch hundreds of millions of hours on YouTube and generate billions of views.
Join Me
What's the point of all this?
The things we spend our money on are continuing to rapidly demonetize. This means that the quality of our lives is going to go up as we inch closer to a post-scarcity world of Abundance.
This is the sort of conversation we explore at my 250-person executive mastermind group called Abundance 360.
The program is highly selective. If you'd like to be considered, apply here. Share this with your friends, especially if they are interested in any of the areas outlined above.
P.S. Every week I send out a "Tech Blog" like this one. If you want to sign up, go to Diamandis.com and sign up for this and Abundance Insider.
P.P.S. My dear friend Dan Sullivan and I have a podcast called Exponential Wisdom. Our conversations focus on the exponential technologies creating abundance, the human-technology collaboration, and entrepreneurship. Head here to listen and subscribe: a360.com/podcast
If you wish to stop receiving our emails or change your subscription options, please Manage Your Subscription
PHD Ventures , 800 Corporate Pointe, Suite 350, Culver City, CA 90230
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Sunday, July 10, 2016
Fwd: upside of Tesla’s autopilot
I own a Tesla Model S and Model X with Autopilot. Best cars I've ever had.
So when the first death with Tesla's Autopilot occurred, was I pissed?
At Tesla? No, not at all.
I was pissed at the media.
This is a blog about the facts, and the Media's "negativity bias."
Here are the facts:
Prior to this first unfortunate death (my sincerest condolences to the family), Tesla's Autopilot had successfully, safely driven owners and their families 130 million miles.
Among all vehicles in the U.S., there is a fatality every 94 million miles.
Worldwide, there is a fatality approximately every 60 million miles.
As a frequent user of Autopilot, I can tell you, it makes me a safer driver, as it keeps me in the lanes when I'm groggy or distracted.
So where are the front-page media stories about how Autopilot "saves lives"?
Let's dive in…
The Media's Negativity Bias: Reality vs. Spin
The press has a bias towards negativity.
Because we pay 10x more attention to negative news vs. positive news, negative headlines sell newspapers and attract eyeballs for their advertisers.
As a result, stories are many times misconstrued and exaggerated.
Technology companies often suffer the worst of this misrepresentation, as technology, by nature, can be complicated, difficult to understand and frequently disrupts the establishment.
After Tesla released a letter detailing the conditions around the first fatal Autopilot crash, thousands of angry articles began to spread across the Internet – literally a feeding frenzy of articles raising concerns for the future of driverless cars, and most lambasted Tesla for their efforts in releasing Autopilot to the public before it was ready, insisting that this incident should force us to "reassess" driverless cars … here are a few high-profile examples:
- The New York Times ran a front-page story quoting experts who said that the accident was "a wake-up call" for the rapidly burgeoning self-driving industry.
- Fortune scathed Musk and Tesla for misleading shareholders and not sharing the crash news sooner.
- A local Florida ABC News affiliate said the crash was "raising safety concerns for everyone in Florida."
Wow… really, everyone?
As Elon succinctly put in a tweet to Fortune magazine, the "BS article increased your advertising revenue. Just wasn't material to TSLA, as shown by market."
Let's Look at the Data…
In the Tesla incident, many of the articles described Tesla's Autopilot as "deadly" or "dangerous."
The reality is, when you look at the numbers, driving with Tesla's Autopilot on is actually SAFER than driving without it, or in a car that doesn't have it.
- As Tesla reports, and as I mentioned earlier, this is the first known fatality in just over 130 million miles where Autopilot was activated.
- Another pair of statistics that bear repeating: Among all vehicles in the U.S., there is a fatality every 94 million miles. Worldwide, there is a fatality approximately every 60 million miles.
- Every day, hundreds of people are killed or seriously injured in their cars across the country… some 33,000 deaths per year in America, and ~1.25 million worldwide.
As Elon also tweeted to the press: "If you care about auto deaths as material to stock prices, why no articles about 1M+/year deaths from other auto companies?"
The only reason the Tesla Autopilot death story is newsworthy is because it involves a new technology (AI/Robotics/Autonomous Driving) – a nice scapegoat for media to blame…
Oh yeah, and besides the fact that Autopilot makes driving safer in general, it should be mentioned that the Model S and Model X actually have the lowest probability of injury of any car ever tested by NHTSA (the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration).
How Does Autopilot Work?
Tesla's Autopilot was a software upgrade to the Model S that allows the vehicle to use its unique combination of cameras, radar, ultrasonic sensors and data to automatically steer down the highway, change lanes, and adjust speed in response to traffic.
The dashboard inside a Tesla vehicle (Source: Tesla Motors)
The Model S Autopilot uses 12 sensors on the bottom of the car — six in the front and six in the back.
It uses a front-facing camera next to the rear view mirror. It also has a radar system under the nose of the car that senses what's in front of the car.
And critically, all of the data processed by these sensors is fed back to a central hub so that all Tesla cars can learn from it, called Fleet learning.
The data is aggregated (anonymously) into maps that let the central Autopilot system see the precise paths that cars take, and don't take.
"Each driver is effectively an expert trainer in how Autopilot should work," Elon explained, and the network of Tesla vehicles is constantly learning more about where cars do and don't actually travel.
Thus, the system's capabilities "will keep improving over time, both from the standpoint of all the expert drivers ... training it," he said, "but also in terms of the software functionality" -- which will add new features.
This is so important I need to restate it: With every single mile driven, the cars get safer and safer.
As Tesla reports, "As more real-world miles accumulate and the software logic accounts for increasingly rare events, the probability of injury will keep decreasing. Autopilot is getting better all the time, but it is not perfect and still requires the driver to remain alert. Nonetheless, when used in conjunction with driver oversight, the data is unequivocal that Autopilot reduces driver workload and results in a statistically significant improvement in safety when compared to purely manual driving."
Implications for AI & Robotics – This Isn't the First:
The reason this pisses me off, besides the aforementioned, is that technology actually makes our lives better on so many different dimensions, but we fear what we don't understand.
Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO) technology, for example, has allowed us to feed tens of millions of people and have never caused a death, yet an uneducated public reacts negatively to what they don't understand.
In the near future, as we see AI, robotics, synthetic genomics and other exponential tech entering further and deeper into our lives, it will be responsible for raising everyone's standards of living, making our lives easier, saving lives…
But as we see the first deaths occur, much of society's gut reaction is to reject the technology, rule it out, or dismiss it as 'not working' or dangerous.
While some make efforts to shut it down, rarely do regulatory bodies make an effort to measure the HARM done by shutting down the tech.
Sure, we could shut down efforts for autonomous cars, and in so doing continue a 33,000 annual death rate per year… but that, IMHO, would be immoral and irresponsible. Or we can embrace the technology and drive the death rate towards zero.
Technology is hard, but it's worth it.
It's likely in 20 years that we'll look back on those days when we gave a 17-year-old kid with less than 20 hours of experience control of a 5,000-lb. vehicle speeding along at 65 MPH as a somewhat insane practice.
I'll take an ever improving machine learning algorithm over kid with a learners' permit any day.
Join Me
This is the sort of conversation we explore at my 250-person executive mastermind group called Abundance 360.
The program is highly selective. If you'd like to be considered, apply here. Share this with your friends, especially if they are interested in any of the areas outlined above.
P.S. Every week I send out a "Tech Blog" like this one. If you want to sign up, go to Diamandis.com and sign up for this and Abundance Insider.
P.P.S. My dear friend Dan Sullivan and I have a podcast called Exponential Wisdom. Our conversations focus on the exponential technologies creating abundance, the human-technology collaboration, and entrepreneurship. Head here to listen and subscribe: a360.com/podcast
PHD Ventures , 800 Corporate Pointe, Suite 350, Culver City, CA 90230
Friday, July 8, 2016
Fwd: Abundance Insider: July 8 Edition
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Peter Diamandis <peter@diamandis.com>
Date: Friday, July 8, 2016
Subject: Abundance Insider: July 8 Edition
To: STeve <stevescott@techacq.com>
<https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEhcA_f_RA6JfU-D3hrWADRaksbI0dWZiGUd-LZxvq8wdxPSaa_CzgErweAas4P9K7wq4CKjvdwfyOnhQfLrLVHBgjOyydpDxxUpj3JNF_PrA5F5ZyVzrcue_Yc-m_p-kLYUfGz32BVo7Yd0NUDWF40Iq5UXnzaHZZCl1o4kXKRPAfmSS3Yacd0hoBugXSzY00RM0zJinJJ5Xaj60ckY=s0-d-e1-ft&stn=0&cid=1180&mid=22870113&aid=22289&aaid=2&time=1468004651>
In this week's Abundance Insider: Regenerative tooth fillings, ticket-fighting AI lawyers, and a new breakthrough in perovskite.
Cheers,
Peter, Marissa, Cody, Maxx, Kelley, Greg, Andrew, and Alex
P.S. Send any tips to data@diamandis.com, and send your friends and family to this link to subscribe to Abundance Insider.
A 19-Year-Old Created a Free Robot Lawyer That Has Beaten 160,000 Parking Tickets
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What it is: British programmer Joshua Browder is a modern-day Robin Hood after a chatbot he programmed to challenge parking tickets has helped thousands of users appeal some $3+ million worth of citations. DoNotPay asks you several questions about your violation and, if you might have a case, auto-generates an appeal for you to file. Business Insider reports that the bot has appealed over 250,000 parking tickets in London and New York with a 64% success rate.
Why it's important: This Browder-built bot proves that AI-enabled chatbots aren't just for convenience -- they can also be used for social good. This bot demonetizes a core revenue model for local governments, but it also demonetizes citizens' access to legal advice. Join the Discussion
Spotted by Marconi Pereira
Watch Synthetic Bones Being 3D-Printed in This Amazing Demo
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What it is: The Aether 1 is a 3D bioprinter that costs under $9,000 but has all the capabilities and performance of bioprinters that cost $250,000 and more. "You can use eight syringe-extruded biomaterials at once -- four times the amount of syringe extruders compared to other $10k bioprinters, and twice the amount of syringes of some $250k bioprinters," Aether 1 CEO Ryan Franks told Digital Trends.
Why it's important: Currently, 3D bioprinters are prohibitively expensive, making it difficult to scale experimentation with 3D printing organs, bone, tissue and cartilage. Affordable 3D bioprinters like Aether 1 remove this cost barrier entirely, and enable a future where everyone has a powerful 3D printer in their home. Join the Discussion
Spotted by Marissa Brassfield
Spongy Electronic 'Nose' Can Sniff Out Nerve Gas and Pesticides
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What it is: Belgian researchers at KU Leuven have developed a portable, spongy sensor that acts like a highly sensitive electronic 'nose', detecting and absorbing trace amounts of the phosphonates found in pesticides and harmful gases. How trace? Engadget reports that in some cases, the sensor can detect just a few parts per trillion.
Why it's important: A powerful sensor like this would significantly streamline security at airports, major venues and any other potential targets for terrorism. At the consumer level, this nose could help people identify leftovers that have gone bad, or even help healthcare workers spot lung cancer from someone's breath. Join the Discussion
Spotted by Marissa Brassfield
Regenerative Tooth Fillings Could Make Root Canals Obsolete
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What it is: A joint project from the University of Nottingham and Harvard could revolutionize dental care by using stem cell-stimulating fillings rather than traditional fillings. Currently, 10% to 15% of fillings fail, which leads to root canals and possible tooth loss. This experimental fillings are made from synthetic biomaterial; when injected into the tooth and hardened for in vitro testing, the fillings stimulated stem cell proliferation and differentiation into dentin.
Why it's important: The ability to regenerate damaged teeth using stem cells could eliminate the need for root canals entirely. The research also enables exploration of other regenerative body parts -- for example, imagine slowly correcting your vision. Join the Discussion
Spotted by Marissa Brassfield
Zoox Raises $200 Million for Self-Driving Cars
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What it is: Autonomous car startup Zoox has just raised $200 million in funding, according to Business Insider, despite operating in super-stealth mode. Earlier reports on Zoox's plans indicate that its fully autonomous vehicle won't have windshields, a steering wheel or brake pedal; it will also be able to drive in any direction, with seating such that passengers face each other.
Why it's important: Peter has described a vision of the future in which we use autonomous cars as moving meeting spaces, traveling nap rooms and truly mobile offices. If successful, Zoox would make this vision a reality. Join the Discussion
Spotted by Cody Rapp
Discovery Could Dramatically Boost Efficiency of Perovskite Solar Cells
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What it is: Scientists at Berkeley Lab's Molecular Foundry and the Joint Center for Artificial Photosynthesis have discovered an unusual property of perovskite solar cells that could pump up their efficiency to 31%. An examination of nanoscale images reveals that perovskite solar cells are composed of a multitude of 200-nanometer grains, some an order of magnitude more efficient than others. "If the material can be synthesized so that only very efficient facets develop, then we could see a big jump in the efficiency of perovskite solar cells, possibly approaching 31 percent," explained Sibel Leblebici, a postdoctoral researcher at the Molecular Foundry.
Why it's important: We've been using silicon solar cells since the 1950s, and most modern solar panels average around 14% to 18% efficiency. Peter has previously blogged about why he's particularly excited about perovskite, and this Berkeley Labs discovery means that we may be able to unlock even higher efficiency from this wonder material than originally imagined. Join the Discussion
Spotted by Marissa Brassfield
Cancer Survivor Receives 3D-Printed Jaw
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What it is: Cancer patient Shirley Anderson recently received a remarkably lifelike 3D printed jaw prosthesis, and its creation process is faster, more flexible and realistic than traditional methods. Students at the Media Arts and Sciences program at Indiana University digitally scanned Anderson's face, used digital sculpting software to model a jaw, and then created a series of molds based on that digital rendering.
Why it's important: Traditionally, creating facial prosthetics entails significant manual manipulation and hand-sculpting. This 3D scanning approach dramatically accelerates the modeling time while producing even more realistic prostheses. Best of all, this new process came from enlisting "non-experts" -- students in a program that typically focuses on the entertainment industry. Join the Discussion
Spotted by Marissa Brassfield
Google DeepMind Will Detect Eye Diseases With AI
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What it is: Google's DeepMind team has partnered with the U.K.'s National Health Service to analyze and mine data from one million anonymized eye scans. Moorfields Eye Hospital, which is supplying the eye scans, already conducts thousands of optical coherence tomography scans per week, but there's often a backlog while healthcare professionals analyze the complex data. Their hope is that machine learning can significantly accelerate this analysis, which in turn enables the hospital to detect and treat eye diseases faster than ever before.
Why it's important: Engadget's reporting summarizes the importance nicely: "If DeepMind's research is successful, this [scan analysis] workflow could be accelerated and, as a result, ensure that many people retain their sight. Some conditions, such as diabetic retinopathy, can be prevented or severely limited provided they are detected early enough." Join the Discussion
Spotted by Marissa Brassfield
Programmable RNA Vaccines
<https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEgbZlZewUmajU1NcgRbFr7HCxKumBnxGuJCqko2oECeRS-MX5hF7XGSgQwvSey_F7IKZivuYOY-209JLyfhbqHQwHQ-6jMGiNfO8NeHkQl7gz3k08Rw_jZxlRi1723ePL4hwTVj_9l6cywkD7ZP0SzFWrBplwlouW9oOEwA8Dl4-gtyqWIwzXUjr0tpcfsAGmLHj13t4uxI_d_nY1PASWtzqcqSZYmUBU32-bfQzCHUl4i4TyvbIKb_ZrnNJWsWGF2nALyluPFbpTGRBQYcRflxkHqe3AuSbUs=s0-d-e1-ft>
What it is: MIT engineers have created a brand new, highly customizable vaccine based on messenger RNA that can be manufactured in as little as a week. Unlike traditional vaccines, which typically use an inactivated virus or pathogen, vaccines made with customized RNA sequences can produce nearly any protein needed. Tests in mice were 100% effective for three vaccines produced using this method: Ebola, H1N1 influenza and Toxoplasma gondii.
Why it's important: Because this easily customizable vaccine can be produced in under a week, delivered via intramuscular injection, and cannot cause mutations in the host genome, it's a powerful, easy-to-implement solution that could halt sudden outbreaks before they become epidemics. Join the Discussion
Spotted by Marissa Brassfield
What is Abundance Insider?
This email is a briefing of the week's most compelling, abundance-enabling tech developments, curated by Marissa Brassfield in preparation for Abundance 360. Read more about A360 below.
Want more conversations like this?
At Abundance 360, Peter's 250-person executive mastermind, we teach the metatrends, implications and unfair advantages for entrepreneurs enabled by breakthroughs like those featured above. The program is highly selective and we're almost full, but we're still looking for a few final CEOs and entrepreneurs who want to change the world. You can apply here.
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PHD Ventures , 800 Corporate Pointe, Suite 350, Culver City, CA 90230
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